Noel a Tampa

Petites vacances a Tampa en Floride. Qu'il est doux de ne rien faire sous les palmiers. Noel par 28 degrés c'est trés agréable.
Belle réunion de famille et paysages de cartes-postales.
Les Américains respectent la trêve des confiseurs. Eux qui ont peu de congés profitent des deux lundis de repos. Pas de `ponts`ni de `viaducs`` ici, à part les superbes ouvrages d'art qui enjambent la baie de Tampa, dignes du pont de Normandie ou de Millau.
En Floride, plus qu'ailleurs, l'Europe, pour ne pas parler de la France, n'existent pas. A peine si on mentionne le pauvre Tony Blair dont l'avion a failli depasser la piste alors qu'il venait, lui aussi, prendre ses vacances...en Floride.
La seule grande nouvelle, à part le décés de l'ancien Président Ford, c'est l'annonce de l'éxécution de Saddam Hussein.
Mes nouveaux compatriotes, non seulement tiennent à une grande majorité à la peine de mort, mais en plus ils y voient une justification dans l'Ancien Testament : ``Oeil pour oeil, dent pour dent``. Le code d'Hammourabi, loin d'être barbare, représentait une amélioration par rapport aux moeurs en vigueur à l'époque (du genre génocide pour un oeil!).

Mais l'homme est censé avoir fait des progrès depuis. L'éxécution, fût-ce d'un tyran meurtrier, détenu par une armée étrangère, dont le pays est occupé par ces mêmes troupes, n'est pas un bon exemple de la démocratie ni de la liberté qui étaient le but de cette lamentable éxpédition.

Une coalition de pays, dont l'Iran, l'Arabie Séoudite et les USA ne font pas partie, veulent faire interdire la peine de mort, en général, par l'ONU. La pendaison de Saddam Hussein, surtout en public, comme semblent le souhaiter les média réactionnaires habituelles, n'aurait pour seul avantage que de redorer le blason fort terni de Georges W. Bush, à la veille de son discours sur l'État de l'Union.
On se rappelle que l'Administration Reagan avait poussé au départ de Challenger, contre l'avis des techniciens, pour redorer le blason de Reagan, à l'occasion du même discours....

Paix sur la terre.

Noel se rapproche, et avec l'arrivée de cette belle fête, les moeurs de la capitale s'adoucissent.
Hier j'ai eu la chance de travailler pour le président Bush lors du sommet de la Maison Blanche contre le paludisme. Il va consacrer des millions de dollars a éradiquer le paludisme en Afrique. Cette maladie tue 3000 enfants par jour. Elle a été vaincue aux USA il y a plus de 60 ans et au Panama il y a 100 ans. Il suffit, entre autres, d'acheter des moustiquaires , dont le coût modeste se monte à 10 $.
Ici tout le monde s'affaire dans les magasins. Comme un peu partout sur la planète, il fait encore chaud pour la saison.
On sent à Washington que la page de l'Irak est en train de se tourner. On ne parle que trés peu des combats en Afghanistan. Cet aprés-midi, Donald Rumsfeld a fait ses adieux en fanfare. Espèrons que cette sortie ne fera pas plus de victimes que la guerre proprement dite.
Cette guerre aura fait beaucoup de dégâts. Les talk-shows continuent à fustiger l'Europe et les français en particulier pour leur compromissions et manque de solidarité . Les américains se sentent toujours investis d'une mission.
Mais dans les soirées de Noel en ville, la politique est un sujet tabou. La seule exception, et c'est le seul sujet qui intéresse mes nouveaux compatriotes, les présidentielles de 2008. Barack Obama est la mode du jour pour les démocrates et Mitt Romney pour les républicains.

On sait que Noel s'approche car la chaine TNT va passer À Christmas Story`en boucle continue.

"The consequences are dire".

So says the ISG report on the situation in Iraq.
One of the obvious recommendation is to find a way to get out. Echoes of "withdrawing with honor" from the Vietnam era.
Which soldier will be the last casualty. And what for?
Will Man ever learn?
Here is what Vera Brittan wrote about war, more than 70 years ago:

"In among the chaos of twisted iron and splintered timber and shapeless earth are the fleshless, blackened bones of simple men who poured out their red, sweet wine of youth unknowing, for nothing more tangible than Honour or their Country's Glory or another's Lust of Power. Let him who thinks the War is a glorious, golden thing, who loves to roll forth stirring words of exhortation, invoking Honour and Praise and Valour and Love of country with as thoughtless and fervid a faith as inspired the priests of Baal to call on their own slumbering deity, let him but look at a little pile of sodden grey rags that cover half a skull and a shinbone and what might have been its ribs or at its skeleton lying on its side, resting half crouching as it fell, perfect but that it is headless, and with the tattered clothing still draped round it; and let him realise how grand and glorious a thing it is to have distilled all Youth and Joy and Life into a foetid heap of hideous putrescence! Who is there who has known and seen who can say that Victory is worth the death of even one of these?"

Testament of youth. 1933

Back to reality

I have returned from Trinidad.
It was an interesting conference. Unions trying to establish "a world union" to counterbalance globalization. A 19th century institution trying to find a place in the 21st. It was interesting to hear a debate between a Pfizer Vice President and , mostly European union members. The corporate giant was talking about the future, research, exciting perspectives to cure diseases.They have just announced the firing of 5,000 vendors worldwide, anticipating the democratic Congress'limitation of pharmaceutical prices.
I then flew back home by way of Miami. I know , y'all envy me: Trinidad, Miami, Washington etc.. In reality, it now means an average of two to three hours of different lines, body and luggage searches, and frantic races to overbooked airplanes full to the galleys. My three hours layover in Miami was entirely dedicated to these various pleasures. The few who have any time to spare can buy smelly and soggy foods to eat on the ,now, foodless flights.

Back in DC also means catching up with politics. And what a change in a few weeks. What I had predicted at the outset is alas true. The war is unwinnable. And while the bickering is about the least humiliating retreat, kids keep on dying, just as it happened with Vietnam. I plan on visiting section 60 of Arlington cemetery where a lot of them now rest.

Trinidad and Tobago

We had a great family gathering for Thanksgiving. We had the unavoidable bash of turkey, mashed potatoes, sweet potatoes, and pumpkin pie, courtesy of the Hilton.
For fun, we took David and Cristina to see the new Mars movie at the IMAX and the "Planet collisions " at the planetarium. To top it all , we saw the latest James Bond. Great!

Right now, I am in TT, aka Trinidad and Tobago. Four hours flight from Miami, 11 km from Venezuela, it is a hot and sweet Caribbean island. Besides debating the concerns of an International Union, I enjoy the beautiful view over Port of Spain from a resort on top of a hill. Trinidad is am oil and gas producer. They also manufacture a mean rhum. Steel drum music and limbo dancing are part of their culture.
The population is made up of Indians, blacks, and whites.
I am told that the beaches are actually on Tobago.

It looks like the Holy father has had a good visit in Turkey. I believe that if you are the Pope, you should be conservative, carry proudly the 2,000 year tradition of the Church, and show the cross...
Meanwhile, GWB is flying around the world trying to have "allies" take over the burden of Afghanistan, while Iraq sinks even further into the abyss. I think he should stay home. His place in History has already been written.

Holland-Malaysia-Canada-Washington

And another RTW (round-the world-trip) in a short week!
That's right. I had the privilege to circumnavigate the globe, yet again. I had to fly to Kuala-Lumpur on short notice to work at multinational conference.
I first flew to Amsterdam, a short skip and a hop across the pond. The sound of the Dutch language, was familiar music to my ears. My stopover was long enough to allow me a walk down nostalgia lane, over the cobblestoned streets along the famous canals. The smell of greasy sausages in the early morning mist brought me back to my former life in the low countries.

A much longer stretch of 747 awaited me. I had the privilege of flying over Russia, Chechnya, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Gulf of Bengal, and Burma, before landing in steaming hot Malaysia 12 hours later. The sleek airport high-speed train whisked me to an inner city of contrasts. Part Malay, part Chinese, part muslim, part buddhist, KL , as it is called, is also a city that never sleeps. Downtown is a jumble of mosques, a monorail system, traditional malay rows of houses, and the tallest skyscraper in the world, the Petronas Towers.
Besides interpreting an interesting meeting on Pacific Ocean security, I had the pleasure of seeing former Vietnamese and Korean students of mine.
I thoroughly enjoyed Malaysian hospitality and food. Here is another vibrant, up and coming tiger economy brimming with eager young people, and boundless ambition.
The malays I was able to meet had low regard for Europe, and a tremendous admiration for America. Their muslim heritage, though, gave them an intensely negative view of US foreign policy.
A rush to KLIA airport, and up and away to Hong-Kong. it was my first visit since 1997, and my first use of the great new airport. So huge in fact, that I barely had time to browse its enormous shopping mall before I sat in Air Canada's Airbus A 340, bound for Vancouver BC.
The plane was full of ethnic Chinese. Vancouver has become a Chinese city, with numerous elected officials coming from Hong-Kong , thanks to the Commonwealth link.
Unlike Britain, scared of Asian hordes, Canada has followed a wise policy that has turned Vancouver into one of the most dynamic cities on the planet.
I had the opportunity to talk to my seatmate, a young Chinese lawyer, practicing in both Canada and Hong-Kong. She was the very proof of globalization. Daughter of poor Chinese farmers from Guandong, she now worked for a Shanghai firm selling software to the US.

I reluctantly parted from my new friend , admired the beautiful mountain backdrop of British Columbia, and psyched myself for the obstacle course TSA had prepared for me before I was allowed on the US side of the airport. After flying around the world, the routine of shoes off-open bags-coats in the bin-laptop and cell phone out, etc.. gets really old. It feels totally useless and a victory of sorts for the bad guys.
I spent my last loonies on a hardy Canadian breakfast and hopped on yet another airbus for the last stretch to old DC.
Any tour around the world today will confirm a few new truths: Europe has become a nice tourist park. Asia is the factory and the beehive of the world. The US are weary and universally feared. Most peple are remarkably alike. they want peace, a good job, and a future for their children. No country can hope of dominating the others. The word "superpower" is an illusion. The future will belong to the next generation of internet savvy jet setters who do not fret about 19th century patriotic visions nor about 20th century historical illusions.

Diversité

Les émeutes de novembre dernier dans la banlieue parisienne ont eu au moins une retombée positive. Outre le fait que j'aie bénéficié de plusieurs contrats de la part de groupes d'études français qui visitent les USA pour trouver des solutions, la France semble s'être aperçue du fait que sa population était certes diversifiée, mais mal intégrée.
Aprés avoir rendu visite à une quinzaine des plus grandes entreprises US, mon groupe a pu à la fois tuer des mythes et entrevoir des solutions.
Aux USA, la diversité et l'inclusion sont au programme depuis les mouvements des droits civiques au début des années 60. Contrairement aux idées reçues, la discrimination positive, appelée affirmative action en Amérique, n'est pas une affaire de quotas. Il s'agit plutôt d'égalité des chances.
L'équivalent de la HALDE aux USA s'appelle EEOC , existe depuis 40 ans et ses lois sont impitoyablement appliquées.
Il faut dire que les relations entre la police et les citoyens aux États-Unis sont une question de civisme, plutôt que l'antagonisme traditionnel que l'on connait en France.
Notre groupe, ayant visité Washington et New York, a été impressioné par la place de l'inclusion dans les grandes entreprises . Aux USA, c'est considéré être bon pour les affaires que d'embaucher et promouvoir les minorités.
Ça permet de s'adresser à un plus grand pool de talent, et de mieux communiquer avec ses clients dans les milieux de la minorité
Encore faudrait-il que nos universités françaises attirent les beurs et les blacks!
Seule note sombre au tableau: mon groupe, les hommes, de race blanche, seront un groupe minoritaire aux USA en 2050!

It's the Constitution, Stupid!

Most people I seem to meet in France or in other countries were saddened, or even appalled at the direction the US were taking. Under the spell of right wing zealots, fueled by know-nothing religious wingnuts, and blindly followed by an obedient commercial press, the US were led down the primrose path .
I told everybody about the US ironclad Constitution, regularly held elections, and democratic system. I predicted that Democracy would win, the warmongers would be thrown out and put on the dock. So far so good. It looks as checks and balances won out. Even my State of Virginia elected Jim Webb, after defeating George Allen.
The new democratic Congress will first have to get us out of Iraq, and then rebuild the reputation squandered by the neocons.

Voting Machines

Is this a great country or what?
As lord Acton noted, "power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely". It could have happened to any party, but this time it is the Republican's turn. After securing both houses, the White House, the Supreme court, and thanks to shameless gerrymandering, almost having secured the party's power ad vitam eternam, they are about to "have a great fall".
A great fall is an appropriate quote. Like Humpty Dumpty, they sat on a wall (Wall Street). They were about to build a wall on our border with Mexico (Mr Bush, tear down this wall!) OOps wrong quote.
Like Humpty Dumpty, they were hollow. Ted Haggard, Jack Abramoff, Tom Delay,Dennis Hastert, Rep.Sherwood, Henry Hyde, Bill Bennett,and all the other Puritan fathers, trying to impose their prudery, turned out to be corrupt, deviants, or really sick. What is it with so many republicans that they have this very unhealthy obsession with sex? Clinton's impeachment, Mark Foley, Jim Webbs' sexy prose? They are also obsessed with homosexuals, but use their services. They are for the defense of marriage, but cheat on their wives, divorce, and, like Strom Thurmond, rape their slaves.
For an explanation, read Moliere's Tartuffe.

T'is the Fall. The fall of any illusions that the Republicans had any platform other than character assasination. (I have no plan, but my opponent stinks.)
To wit the shameless exploitation of a joke John Kerry read badly. He meant:" If you fail at school (like GWB), then you will get us stuck in Iraq". (Like GWB).
It would be contemptible if it were only a case of Bush not understanding the joke. we expect it.(The guy who gave us "Is our children learning?", and "I want food served on every family." But the shame of it all, is to see a man who dodged the draft, attack a decorated veteran for lack of patriotism. I always found patriotism suspect anyway. it cost us 3 wars in the 20th century, and, as Samuel Johnson said: "It is the last refuge of the scoundrel".

I have absolute faith in the US Constitution. It is supposed to get rid of dysfunctional politician on a periodical basis. I just hope that the potential losers are not desperate enough to manipulate the incredibly vulnerable voting machines that will be used Tuesday.

O Canada, eh!

I had the good fortune to spend most of the week in Quebec City.
It was a complete change of climate. Not only did Quebec register a frosty 32F, to the balmy 70s of my current Virginia plantation, but life, as we live it in the US, seems to be totally lost in translation.
Up here, in La Belle Province, no GWOT, no paranoia, no orange alert, no fear.
Our Canadian neighbors have already had their "fire the bums" catharsis. They voted the Liberals out of power, and the Conservatives in. Only now, they have noticed their PM, Stephen Harper, is trying to be a small GW. His popularity instantly descended to the level of his model's.
I worked in the National Assembly building of the Quebec parliament. There , one party aims to achieve independence for Quebec. The opposition party wants to keep the Province within the Federation.
Quebec, with over 7 million inhabitants, and 7 times the size of France, would be a very prosperous country of its own. Hydropower alone makes it energy independent already.
Canada's economy is at a very enviable place right now. The Loony (Canadian $), is worth over 90 US cents. Universal health care, free college education, and a very strong immigration makes it a very good place to live.
Canadians have an ambiguous relationship with their non-metric neighbor to the south. They wish they could build a wall to prevent the smuggling of drugs, weapons, and the general onslaught of American culture. But they think a wall between countries is a repugnant affair, would be too expensive, and useless. American retirees would always find a way to overcome it to get their cheap Canadian medicine anyway.
The same baby boomers who fled the Vietnam war to Canada in the 60's are now retracing the same path to get their meds.
As one RCMP officer told me: "Meme si on construisait un mur de 8 pieds, ces sacres tabernak des Etats iront acheter des echelles de 9 pieds a Wal-Mart."

The end of the war.

In Virginia, the "war", pronounced "the wah", refers to the War of Northern Aggression, known in our history books as The Civil War.
What is known in German as "Die Invasion", is called in French "Le debarquement", and in English D Day.
Liberation is in the eye of the beholder.
As I grew up in Lorraine, my childhood was full of tales of WWII. We even played war, dressed up in authentic GI fatigues, helmet liner included, waving a US flag that had gone through the actual Normandy landings. America, where some of my relatives had found a haven in the 1880's, was a mythical land, peopled with good guys, with unlimited power. Our TV screens were full of Hollywood productions. Our town was ringed with US air bases, defending us from a far from hypothetical Soviet invasion.

In 2004, the inhabitants of the Thionville area, regrouped in the Moselle River Association, gathered over 200 000 Euros to invite the US heroes who liberated them from the Nazis on November 11, 1944. The US veterans were feted, wined and dined and profusely thanked by a grateful population.

In August 2005, as Becky and I were visiting a D Day museum in Normandy, I heard a group of French high school students, expressing their surprise that the US were "the good guys"!

The damage caused by the ill fated war in Iraq goes beyond the 655,000 Iraqi dead, the 3,000 US soldiers lost, or even the billions of dollars wasted.
That war has destroyed the moral image of America, and worse, has tarnished its democratic values in the rest of the world.
To me, the removal of "the beacon of hope" that the US represented for the world at large, is the gravest failure committed by those who dragged the country in this adventure for sheer ideological, non-American reasons.
I trust that the Constitution will prove its worth and that the mid-term elections will allow us to rebuild this shattered image.

Big trouble in Korea

The news that the Democratic and Popular Republic of Korea, under the leadership of the Dear leader Kim Jong Il, has carried out the test of a nuclear bomb, is grim.
Not that it should be a great surprise.
After having heard that the greatest power on earth had put them on the list of "the axis of evil", that the first on the list, Iraq, was promptly invaded and turned into a raging inferno, the Dear leader had only one option if he wanted respect......nuclear weapons.
Donald Rumsfeld (no relation to Donald Duck as the French keep believing), when asked what should N.Korea do in 2003, famously answered:"They should take a number".
Besides being exactly the opposite of all non-proliferation policies, it is a call to nuclear arsenals to all the DPRK neighbors: Japan, Thailand, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia etc.. Most of these countries have the means to do it, and quite a few will do it because they hate Japan.
This reminds me of the chain of events started in Sarajevo in 1914.

Not to worry. The US will not attack the DPRK. It is too late. As an officer told me in Florida: "We cannot afford to lose Seoul". The other thing they cannot afford, is more troops and more equipment after the Iraq adventure.Too bad. They had WMDs!

Ah, but there is still Iran and Syria. They should not be too hard to crush? especially since we are getting close to November 7th and the polls have taken a serious dip after the Foley follies.

Peaceful Fall.

I just celebrated my birthday with a day trip to the Shenadoah Valley, here in Virginia. The excuse was the Green valley Book Fair that I would not miss for anything, although my acquisition of new books is way ahead of my reading them all...
The fall colors have started in their gorgeous splendor.
While I was in full contemplation, an Amish village in Pennsylvannia, was quietly burying 5 little girls, murdered by a deranged man with an easy access to murderous weapons. If we wanted a proof of who is really backwards, the grieving Amish invited the murderer's widow and forgave her husband.
In the surreal world, Republican operatives are trying to blame the scandal of one of their own's pedophile activities on their Democratic opponents.
The country will be far better off when it is cleansed of lying, power hungry politicians who would rather endanger pages entrusted to their care than losing power and privileges. RAUS!
Last week, I had the privilege of attending the Library of Congress' Book fair. The line for a signature by Bob Woodward on his book "Denial" was a mile long.
Frankly, none of his revelations are earth shattering to those of us, regular observers, who knew from day one that the illegal invasion of Iraq was based on false assertions and condemned to catastrophic failure.
I welcome Woodward's late conversion to the new conventional wisdom. His book, the latest NIE, Chairman Warner's pessimistic evaluation of the misadventure im Iraq, and the latest Foley scandal, might finally open the door to a long list of hearings that will advance the truth.

E pur, si muove.

I have, once again, circumnavigated the globe, and confirmed Galileo's scandalous assertion that the earth might be round.
After a flight to Europe, followed by a visit to Singapore , San Francisco and a last flight to Washington, I am back to square one, Springfield , Virginia.

My last stop in California was a delightful end to my trip. In spite of Santa Ana winds, et brush fires, I had the pleasure to cross the San Francisco Bay, enjoy the beautiful landscape, and take advantage of the hospitality of my left coast family, the Pascos in Fairfield, and the Amadors in Roseville.

But as Apollinaire said about the water under the Seine bridges, the bridge may be the same, but the water under it is different. I returned to Washington in time to see the regrettable passage of the law allowing the US to torture and deny habeas corpus to anybody suspected of being an "enemy combatant", and that includes you and I. No presumption of innocence, no right to know why you have been arrested, no right to evidence, admission of hearsay, legalization of torture. Politicians of BOTH sides of the aisle capitulated in order to save their seats. Shame on them. They have knocked the statue of Liberty off its pedestal more surely than we knocked off that of Saddam Hussein. They have handed Bin Laden a greater victory than that of 9/11.

The Nurnberg trials were categorical, nobody can have the excuse to say : "I just obeyed orders". Jodl was hanged, Keitel was hanged, Streicher was hanged, etc..
Uncle Sam just did a huge step backward to the Middle Ages with this vote.
It raises moral questions for somebody like me, about to become a US citizen: do I want to ecxchanged a country where torture is banned for one where it is OK ? A country where the death penalty is abolished for one where you can be executed without the right to know why?
In 1998, General Aussaresse, an 83 year old French General published his memoirs on the Algerian war. He confessed to having supervised the torture of arab urban guerillas. He was sentenced to life imprisonment after this revelation , for crimes against humanity......
An interesting parallel.

At Changi Airport

It is early in the morning and i am in the lounge at Changi Airport, ready to embark on an 18hr trip across the Pacific Ocean. After a stopover in Seoul, Korea, i will arrive in San Francisco Thursday around noon.
Singapore has been a very good experience. It is well worth the trip. The progress accomplished since my last visit in 1985 highlight the shift of dynamics from the west back to the east.
Although Singapore is an authoritarian regime, ruled by the son of Lee Kwan Yew, there is a parliament and the multiethnic , multicultural society lives in peace and prosperity. Chinese, Malays and Indians coexist well together. The place is very clean, caning is the common punishment for offenses, and there is no religious strife.
Lee Kwan Yew is the "Mentor Minister", at 83 he is watching his son rule.
Everybody has to pay 20% of his income to the Common Provident Fund. Employers also pay 20% of their profit in that fund. Anybody can use the fund for education, health or housing purposes.
Tomorrow, the much cooler climate of Northern California awaits me.

Globalization

I was lucky enough to attend the Monetary Committee breakfast in Singapore. The topic: globalization.The participants: Finannce ministers and Central bankers from all over the world.Bob Bernanke, Hank Paulson, the CEOs of HSBC, RBS, and a few other heavy weights with Bob Zoellick, and the heads of all IFIs (International Financial Institutions) such as UN, UNDP, OECD, EU, AU, WTO etc..
People who not only know about the Financial world, but who are in the driver's seat.

Conclusion: The World has changed. Europe and to a lesser extent the US are dragging. Asia is booming, even Africa and latin America are doing great. After 40 years of aid, the former Third World is catching up. Problem: Our jobs are up for grabs by all of them. CEOs, who owe their loyalty to consumers and shareholders go where costs are lowest. Our consumers go for the lowest price. Today, anybody in Gabon, Morrocco or Iran can do what was done in Detroit, Birmingham or Dusseldorf.....and much cheaper.

Most of these countries have stopped borrowing from the IMF or the WorldBank . These institutions are victims of their success. The US is the largest borrower in the World. Instead of the split between rich and poor being between the First and the third world, it now is within each of our countries, between the skilled and the unskilled.
Problem:
Voters in the US and in Europe are not aware of the change. They view the disappearance of manufacturing jobs as a temporary outrage that can be stopped by "courageous" politicians with protectionist measures. You put a high tariff on imports. You close the border, and start a buy American campaign. politicians are always ready to offer simple remedies to be re-elected.
In Europe, EU citizens do not realize that the world can make the same Renault or VWs but without the extra cost entailed by social benefits and entitlements. Worse, because of protection against Asian brands, European cars have not innovated and are less attractive to the outside world , except for the luxury niche.
What politicians do not say, is that it is too late! Not only protectionism would kill competition, but it would allow a price hike. Higher prices = less purchases = less factories = less jobs = less money = less purchasing power = bankrupcies etc.
That happened in 1929 after the Smoot-Harley act....
When president Bush protected US steel manufacturers from foreign imports, Europe retaliated with a ban on US products. Worse, Detroit had no choice but to buy american steel and add to the costs of its cars!

As I write this, the WTO negociations are suspended and might die. If they are killed because of protectionist policies in the US and in Europe, the consumer can get ready to see its purchasing power take a tremendous hit. And if you remember what followed 1929, it won't be the biggest problem.

Why is it that consumers do not organize to save globalization from a handful of backward populists?

I was actually paid to attend this select breakfast. I would have paid to be there.

Byzantium.

In a speech at Regensburg University, Pope Benedict XVI made a speech that seems to have caused waves around the world. It would be welcome news that a pope, any pope get such an audience. Except that, this time, the reaction was very negative. Holding a conference at the school where he had the chair of theology, pope Benedict read a text written by a Byzantian emperor in the 14th century. The Emperor was asking rhethorically what good had prophet Mohammed, PBUH,ever brought except destruction by the sword. The text was written at a time of great confrontation between moslems and christians. It was not a coincidence that His Holiness chose this text at a time when moslem violence seems to reach a new peak.
The "arab street" mysteriously informed of a text in German, written 7 centuries ago,reacted immediately with outrage. 1 billion germanists and Byzantium specialists! We did not know about these hidden talents of our moslem brothers.

Good for the pope. And shame on those who will try anything to inflame the mob in order to fulfill their violent political agenda. After the "cartoons" crisis, I say enough! Where are the so called moderate moslems? Where were they on 9/11?
Enough with mindless violence.
I like this Pope.

Views from the wings....

The IMF-Worldbank annual meetings have started in Singapore.
And everyday, I trek from my hotel to the heavily guarded Suntec Center through a maze of underground shopping malls. The alternative, walking the spotless and flowery streets of the city,would be tough. Why do men have to wear heavy dark suits and ties, on the equator, with 90% humidity, is beyond me.
In the malls, the average age seems to be between 15 and 20. Not unlike Korea, Thailand or Vietnam. Asia is young. And they all seem to be studying books! (China produces 4 times as many graduates as the US.)
The mix of scantily clad chinese with hijab wearing malays does not seem to represent a clash of civilisations.
Once you pass the security check you are privy to the latest predictions about the economic future of the planet. The top economists meet the top bankers from all over the world. And you can see, almost physically how the world has radically changed.

While the planet , over all is in good health, the best in 40 years, with 5,6% growth, some continents are on the decline(Europe), and others are threatened with dire problems (the US.)
For Europe, it is the obstinate hanging on to "the European Model", a wewlfare state nobody can afford when jobs emigrate overseas.
For the US,it is mismanagement:
Whereas the US had a record surplus of 325 bn dollars in 2000, today, it is a debtor to the world. The US owe the rest of the world 9 trillion dollars and keep begging for 2bn dollars a day , just to pay its bills.
Such a huge debt costs: the countries that lend the US want to be paid for their money: It costs the US taxpayer 325bn dollars, or close to 1bn a day, just to pay the interest.
The gap between its earning and its spending is 400bn dollars.(budget deficit).
The US debt would be enough to to buy 28 solid gold Eiffel Towers.

But while the US danced, the Asian worker bees made honey.
China now owns 925 billion US dollars. We hope they will keep on lending it...if we are nice to them. Our other bankers are Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Kuwait, and Venezuela.
The IMF member states no longer accept to be ruled by Washington. Given its now modest role, it can only acquiesce to abandon a large part of its shares of the world's financial system to "emerging countries", like China, India, Mexico, Brazil or Turkey.
The US consumer, on a non stop buying spree, has helped the rest of the world grow to be rivals. It has also provoked an exodus of jobs overseas:
Between 1998 and today, 3,4 million US jobs and 2,3 million just for Germany, have emigrated to Asia.

Not only have Europe and the US lost industrial and financial power, but in the boardrooms, even if it is still in English, the major decisions are increasingly taken by Asian voices.
Sic transit gloria mundi.

Singapore

I have arrived in Singapore.
24,000 participants to the WorldBank/IMF Annual Meetings are to be welcomed by "4 million smiles".
To be sure, after a mere 24 hours on the island state, I have already practiced my Chinese. Singaporeans speak Malay, English and Chinese. Fortunately for me they use mandarin, but unfortunately they still use the classic, unsimplified characters.
The island has completely changed since my last visit in 1985. It is a strikingly beautiful window into succesful Asia. Every square inch is manicured and landscaped. Flowers and gardens are abundant, even in the middle of the business district.The warm temperature and high humidity make it a challenge to explore on foot.
The country is famous for being spotless. But the "Long bar" at Raffles, of Somerset Maugham fame, claims you can "come and LITTER "the bar with peanuts!
The food, malay, indian, chinese, and world-capitalist, is a treat in this town. Satay for lunch, laska noodles for dinner and a Starbucks frappucino in the afternoon.
Chinese women in miniskirts throng the sidewalks along with bearded sikhs, veiled malays, and sweaty westerners. The odor of cloves cigarettes wafts over the stalls. A network of underground shopping malls allows the visitor a cool trip downtown.
Tomorrow, we will take care of the world's financial woes.
The demonstrators, a constant feature in these meetings, have been relegated to an Indonesian island several miles offshore!

On the road .

Once again, I am about to check if the earth is really round. I left Washington last Friday and flew to Frankfurt, Germany. 256km , and a VW Polo later, I was in Thionville, just in time to celebrate my Dad's 84th birthday. The weather was gorgeous, and so was the family gathering.
I am now in the drab Frankfurt airport lounge, on my way to Singapore.
It was interesting to commemorate 9/11 in France. The media and the people, by and large, still subscribe to Le Monde's headline on the real 9/11: "We are all Americans". Many reports, debates and documentaries occupied most of the day on the big event. The French seem just as moved and upset as they were 5 years ago.
As to the war in Iraq and the so called "war on terror", they side with the majority of the American public....

The rule of law.

Good news!Or not.

Yesterday, President Bush has announced, among other things, that 9/11 perpetrators, held incommunicado until now in various and sundry CIA prisons abroad, would be transferred to Guantanamo bay. to be tried. He urged Congress to pass legislation to set up military tribunals to afford the alleged criminals a full trial, with lawyers, 5th amendment protection, albeit without right of discovery..

Other good news, the Pentagon is to issue a new manual on how to question alleged ennemies: gone are the hoods, waterboarding, sleep deprivation, the dogs, and other electric shocks.

And since good news always come in threes, the US is transferring to Iraq part of the responsibility for the Iraqi army. Onward to victory!

The sad history of this Administration entitles us to ask a few questions:

Is it really good news? First we learn that, what until now was only suspected and vehemently denied,was true: The US government, had broken the rule of law, disregarded the Geneva Convention, maintained a gulag archipelago abroad with the complicity of arab and European governments, tortured "enemy combattants", and never informed Congress, the co-equal branch of government.

Why come clean now?
Who will really believe that any of these practices have really ceased?
The upcoming November election looms as a disaster for the Republicans because the voters are angry about the war in Iraq. It was time for the Administration to shift the public's attention to FEAR. "We are still at risk. We have caught the bad guys, and if only the bad Congress gave us a law, we could judge them."
In a call-in program on WTOP this morning, 81% of the callers were in favor of torture and indefinite imprisonment of all "enemy combattants", more or less linked with 9/11.
The electoral move by Bush might save his party!
Another reason to make this announcement is that, if the Democrats win the House, and therefore get to chair hearings and inquiries, many members of the Bush Administration will need lawyers and could even face criminal charges. Alberto Gonzales, has quietly advised loyal financiers of the party to start constituting a war chest fot just that eventuality.

September in Virginia

Actually I won't be in Virginia for much of September. My job will take me to Chicago, Fargo,Germany, France, Singapore, Vietnam, California and a few towns in between.
I shall be part of the Annual Meetings of the IMF in Singapore.
But life is good in Virginia. We just had the visit of ERNESTO, the hurricane, after it became a tropical depression. that was enough to bring the temperature from 90F to 60F in a jiffy. Last night we lost power due to branches falling on power lines. C
Candlelight dinner!
In the Virginia vineyards, the harvest is at its peak. The Seyval and Vidal rieslings are already in. ready for the crush. As to the linden Bordeaux, their turn will come soon. A very dry August, followed by cooler weather and some rain, will make it another banner year for Linden vineyards.
The House and Senate campaigns are now in full swing and we are hoping for a change of decor, come November.
The war in Irak is worsening. We were stunned last week to see the Pentagon itself admitting reality. Bush is now campaigning for "Victory". Members of his party are trying to pretend they have never seen him.....
I do not like the old saber rattling I hear concerning Iran. Surely they cannot try to pull the wool over our eyes a second time! What did GWB himself say: "Fool me once, I am fooled, fool me twice, euh, fool me twice..."

Florida break

I am back after a great break in Tampa. I was visiting David and Cristina in their new installation. Great city, Tampa is located on the Gulf of Mexico in Florida. The city was founded as a resort for wealthy Northeasterners. A train, the Plant System, brought rich customers to a Victorian hotel from which they could dip their feet in the Gulf. I do not know how they survived without air-conditioning. Last week-end, with the approach of Hurricane Ernesto,the humidity was close to 100%.
I visited the "Bodies" exhibition which I warmly recommend : "opened" real human bodies in various poses....
I was lucky enough to be invited at Donatello's, a restaurant to die for.

Back to reality. Washington DC is slowly waking up from the dog days of August. Nicolas Sarkozy, French minister and candidate to the presidency, is coming to town. I will miss him because I will be on my way to Asia. Le Figaro says he was learning English while at the beach. Without me, he will need it!
It seems that France is sending a "robust" contingent of troops to UNIFIL in Lebanon. Earlier hesitations were due to assurances that the French brass requested before they committed their soldiers to that tragic land. They have not forgotten the "Drakkar" bombing where 58 French paratroopers were blown up by Hezbollah in 1983.
And, if France seems at times to pursue a pro-arab policy, because of its proximity to the region and the composition of its population, the military has a few accounts to settle.
Half the troops killed in UNPROFOR in Bosnia were French. French officers actually leaked intelligence to the Serbs and called the Bosnian moslems "Bosniouls", in reference to the racist French term for moslems: "bougnouls".
None of the brass has forgotten the bloody Algerian war. Chirac himself served in that war for two years as a captain.
David Galula's book on urban guerilla in Arab countries, and the classic film "The battle of Algiers" are now in the packs of all US officers in Iraq.
Armed with Leclerc tanks and surface to surface missiles, the 2,000 French troops in Lebanon might have to disarm Hezbollah.
France, which exercised a protectorate over Syria and Lebanon, also has accounts to settle with Damascus. President Hariri, killed on orders from Assad, was a personal friend of Chirac. The French president's rage led him to fight Syria at the UN, impose a humiliating retreat from Lebanon, and now, might position the French Foreign Legion on the approaches to Syria.
Lebanon, a French speaking country, still has descendants from French Crusaders. And Arab children learn at school that the said Crusaders, under Godefroi de Bouillon, in the early Middle Ages, used to eat moslem babies to the cry of "Deus le volt".
No wonder it took a while before deciding on the sending of troops.
Besides, France already has troops in Kossovo, Bosnia, Afghanistan, Congo, Ivory Coast, Central African Republic, Chad, as well as in a dozen other less warring regions.