Memphis

No, not the famed city of the Pharohs, but the equally famous city on the Mississippi. I was there for a conference on Multiple Launcher Rockets. I had not been in Memphis since I drove through it, on my way from San Francisco to New York in 1971.
Besides the intriguing art of killing your fellow humans in a cost effective way, I discovered many interesting places in that town. The Peabody hotel with the daily Duck family walk. The Lorraine Motel, where a wreath marks the spot where brother Martin was assassinated back in 1968. Beale street, the birthplace of the blues, where I was privileged to hear some genuine American music. (No I did not see Elvis and did not go to Graceland.)
I enjoyed riding the 1930's trolleys that completely revived downtown. And yes, I had to try a delicious rack of ribs, Memphis'pride. The view along the Mississippi reminds one of Huck Finn, or even Voltaire and his "Meschacebe". The whole city has an air of real America , compared to the Washington area. There you can see the courthouse where most of Grisham's interminable trials take place.
But I had to go back to Virginia in a cramped NW Airbus. There I learned that GW Bush's fortunes kept on deteriorating. He now is upset at latinos singing the national anthem in Spanish. If he really spoke Spanish, by the way, he might be less puzzled.....
Apparently it is nothing compared to Jacques Chirac's troubles. A good old fashionned State scandal is brewing in Paris, to really finish him off with a bang. It seems like Chirac tried to falsely imply that his rival Sarkozy was involved in bribes on a Luxembourg secret account. It turns out the account is not secret, Sarkozy's name was falsely added to the list and...surprisse surprise, M.De Villepin's hand is all over the place.
Oh well, I will go on the bank of the Potomac, and enjoy our wonderful spring with a good book. Il faut cultiver son jardin.

Of Money and Power

I just finished the week of conferences called The IMF-WorldBank Spring Meetings. Made up of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, the Developpement Committee and many preparatory meetings, the summit is the G7 Finance ministers meeting.
I have been working for these conferences for most of 25 years. Until recently, the US Secretary of the Treasury gave the tone, and everybody else, donors and beneficiaries aligned themselves, more or less on his august pronouncements. But given the parlous state of US finances, the loss of respect for the nation that launched a preemptive war on Iraq, Mr Snow had little to say. Instead, and for the second year in a row, Mr Zhou, the Chinese governor, was the star. Not only did he take the lead, but he seemed to find many disciples. What would be the used, he scoffed, of revaluating the yuan? Americans would not buy less Chinese goods and more US goods. The US no longer manufacture most of the products they buy from China...
You sense now, in the austere surroudings of our Financial Temples, the passing of the torch. Sure, China is a very long way from passing the USA economically, but its mounting power has already been acknowledged in Washington.
I also had the opportunity to work on the visit of many African ministers who came to pay their respects to the Bretton Woods institutions. Respects or good-byes?
It turns out that emerging countries (Argentina, Turkey, Brazil,) are turning their back on Washington. They reimbursed their loans and will go to private banks from now on.
African countries have seen their debt "forgiven" by the West. That means no more reflows to the Bretton Woods institutions, the IFIs.
In the medium term, deprived of reimbursements and forced by the US to only give grants to assisted countries, the IFIs will soon run out of funds, or lose their AAA rating and thus their raison d'etre.
The Meltzer report, which advocated the slow death of the IFIs through the very methods, had been rejected by the Clinton Administration. It seems that the Bush Administration has finally delivered to its masters, the head of its IFIs rivals on a silver platter.

Holy Week

I just had an exciting Holy Week. Not really holy, but exciting nonetheless.
I had a chance encounter with His Excellency Alpha Omar Konare, former president of Mali and current President of the African Union. A man gifted with great wisdom, he talked about the fate of the African Continent. He foresees a great future for an Africa of 1,5 billion young people in 2030. An Africa as dynamic as China or India, but even younger. An Africa sitting on the richest mineral deposits in the world.
He also worried about peace. The rumblings heard in Chad bore no good news. The situation in Darfur has degenerated and the turmoil has spread to neighboring countries. Oil rich Chad, with one of the poorest per capita income in the world, is the next victim of the rot that spreads all over the Continent. The Sudanese rulers have attacked Chad for sheltering the Darfur refugees. I remember the pitiful state this huge country was in when I first saw it, just after its war with Libya. I saw a Belgian doctor amputating children's limbs in Faya Largeau, his only source of electricity, the battery of an old 2cv Citroen.
Today, with a huge oil enclave drilled by Exxon-Mobil-Chevron, and managed by Halliburton, the country is so corrupt that the Worldbank cut all funding. My last trip to the Exxon enclave reminded me of the heydays of the colonies.
Last week, the rebels reached the capital. The French "Epervier" armed forces sent 450 extra troops from the CAR. They sent a couple of Mirage F1 and bombed rebel columns.
Mr Konare fears a domino effect and the ensuing fall of the CAR , the Great lakes countries and the RDC if nothing stops the drift towards chaos.
I also spent a great week end in New York. Compared to the Paris blues, demonstrations and riots, what a difference!
Finally,we hear more and more about the urgency for the US to attack Iran. It is a dangerous game of chicken. The trouble this time is that the authorities of BOTH countries are just as reckless and as messianic. It is to be feared that a war against Iran might just involve the entire Middle east this time. So far Iran is the main beneficiary of the Iraq war and I understand the US frustration. But it is too late to react. we will have to live with a vastly accelerated proliferation.

Duke University

We just spent the week-end in Durham, NC, visiting David and Cristina. Durham, and the surrounding area were gorgeous in this early spring season. We drove along Duke University's campus, bright with thousands of tulips, dogwoods and azaleas. The residential areas, of all social levels, are bedecked in wisteria, daffodils and cherry trees.
David and I talked about wines, politics, recipes and movies. The talk of the town was about a black "exotic" dancer, allegedly gang raped by Duke Lacrossse team members. She was on duty, performing for the white students at a rowdy party , off campus. Here, in a nutshell, are all the ingredients of a slice of Americana: rich frat boys from a select private school; the poor student from a black college, who strips in order to pay for her studies; wild alcoholized parties in quiet neighborhoods; the reputation of a renowned school and even the prosecutor, DA. Nifong, running for office. Add a touch of DNA, the local newspaper "the Sun-Herald", and you have a novel that could only take place in the South.
By the way, in Durham blacks are 45 % of the population, whites 44%, and hispanics 9%!

Meanwhile, back in France, the CPE is dead. Chirac caved in. He about killed any hope for De Villepin to ever succeed him, and with it, also killed any hope for France to catch up with the XXIst century. It is the sad end of a reign, and the pursuit of a chimera. Students, workers, and 76% of the population who was against the CPE are the ultimate losers. Their belief that the rules should be dictated in the street are vindicated: they have lost their democracy. They think they struck a blow for liberty, they will control their lives even less , under a globalization they think they just escaped. Are we headed for a sixth Republic?

La nostalgie au pouvoir.

Je regardais avec fascination Fox News hier aprés-midi. Non pas que j'en sois un habitué, mais en zappant mes 250 canaux, je suis tombé sur deux heures de direct sur la France! On ne parle que rarement de la France ici, et le plus souvent, c'est en dérision .
Pendant plus de 2h d'antenne, les correspondants de Fox ont donné au téléspectateur américain de la chaine la plus regardée, le triste spectacle des émeutes Place d'Italie à Paris. Une tribune de commentateurs s'est esclaffée sur les 35 heures, les 6 semaines de congés, et le racisme. Aux USA, l'aune de la moralité d'une nation, c'est le travail.
Je me souviens de la révolte de mai 68. A l'époque, nous voulions une bouffée d'air et nous débarrasser du carcan de l'Etat. Aujourd'hui, nos étudiants s'accrochent déséspérément au passé.

C'est la faute à nos idées romantiques, de la tendance bien latine qui préfére l'émotion à la raison, et au mythe de la Révolution , qui nous revient, certains printemps, avant que les vacances n'y mettent fin. C'est surtout la faute des hommes politiques, de la gauche à la droitec, en passant par les syndicats et la presse, qui continuent à faire croire au bon peuple qu'on peut `maitriser`, voire échapper à la mondialisation.
Quelle perte de temps. Nos enfants, sans spécialisation, ne valent pas plus sur le marché du travail mondial que l'ouvrier algérien ou birman. On ne peut plus prétendre vendre nos Airbus, nos Renaults ou nos yaourts sur le marché mondial, tout en nous arc-boutant sur une législation du travail rédigée à une époque où il fallait demander un tryptique à la préfecture pour voyager au Luxembourg!
Nos lycéens remplacent dans la rue les parlementaires élus par voie démocratique. Nous sommes passés à un régime anarchique. Pendant ce temps, en Chine, 6 millions d'étudiants, dans 2 000 universités, préparent leur avenir et peut-être le nôtre.....Qui peut encore croire qu'une nation qui représente 1% de l'humanité, avec une croissance de 1,5% (ce qui équivaut à une marche arrière), puisse vivre en autarcie?
Il faut avoir le courage de le dire à notre jeunesse pour qu'ils puissent défendre véritablement leur avenir.
Autant il est idiot de la part de Fox News de ridiculiser la France (un membre du public s'est réjoui de nos déboires en rappelant notre refus de participer à la guerre en Irak), autant l'ignorance économique de nos étudiants est porteuse de durs réveils.